During which period did the Invisible Primary not predict party nominees very well?

The period from 2004 to 2012 is notable for instances where the Invisible Primary, which refers to the period of campaigning that occurs before the official primaries and caucuses where candidates secure endorsements, raise funds, and build organizational support, did not accurately predict party nominees.

During the 2008 Democratic primary, for example, early favorites such as Hillary Clinton faced unexpected challenges from Barack Obama, who was not as heavily favored in the early Invisible Primary phase. Obama's rise in the primaries challenged the notion that the Invisible Primary could reliably forecast a candidate's path to the nomination.

Additionally, in the Republican Party during this timeframe, candidates like John McCain, who struggled for early traction, eventually secured the nomination against more established contenders. Both of these examples illustrate that the dynamics of the electoral race can dramatically shift, leading to outcomes that the early indicators of the Invisible Primary do not reflect accurately.

In contrast, other periods, such as the 1980s and early 2000s, often saw better alignment between the predictions of the Invisible Primary and the actual nominees, limiting the surprises that occurred in more competitive and tumultuous election cycles like those seen in 2008 and the lead-up to the 2012 election.